Review on the epidemiology and dynamics of BSE epidemics

The paper describes how the comprehensive surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and studies carried out on these data has enhanced our knowledge of the epidemiology of BSE. Around 7 000 BSE cases were detected through the screening of about 50 million cattle with rapid tests in Europe. It confirmed that the clinical surveillance had a poor capacity to detect cases, and also showed the discrepancy of this passive surveillance efficiency between regions and production types (dairy/beef). Other risk factors for BSE were being in a dairy herd (three times more than beef), having a young age at first calving (for dairy cattle), being autumn-born (dairy and beef), and being in a herd with a very high milk yield. These findings focus the risk on the feeding regimen of calves/heifers. Several epidemiological studies across countries suggest that the feedborne source related to meat and bone meal (MBM) is the only substantiated route of infection ¿ even after the feed ban ¿, while it is not possible to exclude maternal transmission or milk replacers as a source of some infections. In most European countries, the average age of the cases is increasing over time and the prevalence decreasing, which reflects the effectiveness of control measures. Consistent results on the trend of the epidemic were obtained using back-calculation modelling, the R0 approach and Age-Period-Cohort models. Furthermore, active surveillance also resulted in the finding of atypical cases. These are distinct from previously found BSE and classified in two different forms based on biochemical characteristics; their prevalence is very low (36 cases up to 1st September 2007), affected animals were old and some of them displayed clinical signs. The origin and possibility of natural transmission is unknown

Ground-based follow-up observations of TRAPPIST-1 transits in the near-infrared

The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system is a favorable target for the atmospheric characterization of temperate earth-sized exoplanets by means of transmission spectroscopy with the forthcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). A possible obstacle to this technique could come from the photospheric heterogeneity of the host star that could affect planetary signatures in the transit transmission spectra. To constrain further this possibility, we gathered an extensive photometric data set of 25 TRAPPIST-1 transits observed in the near-IR J band (1.2 $\mu$m) with the UKIRT and the AAT, and in the NB2090 band (2.1 $\mu$m) with the VLT during the period 2015-2018. In our analysis of these data, we used a special strategy aiming to ensure uniformity in our measurements and robustness in our conclusions. We reach a photometric precision of $\sim0.003$ (RMS of the residuals), and we detect no significant temporal variations of transit depths of TRAPPIST-1 b, c, e, and g over the period of three years. The few transit depths measured for planets d and f hint towards some level of variability, but more measurements will be required for confirmation. Our depth measurements for planets b and c disagree with the stellar contamination spectra originating from the possible existence of bright spots of temperature 4500 K. We report updated transmission spectra for the six inner planets of the system which are globally flat for planets b and g and some structures are seen for planets c, d, e, and f.Comment: accepted for publication in MNRA

The role of angiography in the congruence of cardiovascular measurements between autopsy and postmortem imaging.

Postmortem CT angiography is the method of choice for the postmortem imaging investigations of the cardiovascular (CV) system. However, autopsy still remains the gold standard for CV measurement. Nevertheless, there are not any studies on CV measurements on the multi-phase postmortem angiography (MPMCTA) which includes comparisons with autopsy. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare CV measurements between the native CT scan and the three phases of the MPMCTA to find out which of these modalities correlate the best with autopsy measurements. For this study, we selected retrospectively 50 postmortem cases that underwent both MPMCTA and autopsy. A comparison was carried out between the CV measurements obtained with imaging (aorta; heart cavities and cardiac wall thicknesses; maximum cardiac diameter and cardiothoracic ratio) and at the autopsy (aorta; cardiac valves, ventricular thicknesses, and weight). Our results show that the dynamic phase displays an advantage for the measurement of the aortas. However, the MPMCTA is not accurate to measure the cardiac wall thicknesses. The measurements of the heart cavities show no correlation with the heart valves. The cardiothoracic ratio measured by the MPMCTA shows no correlation with the heart weight. Nevertheless, the maximum cardiac diameter exhibits a correlation with the latter on the venous and dynamic phase. These results show that only few CV parameters measured with imaging correlate with measurement obtained at the autopsy. These results indicate that in order to better estimate values obtained at the autopsy, we need to define new reference values for the CV measurement on MPMCTA

Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout

We demonstrate how mechanistic modeling can be used to predict whether and how biological responses to chemicals at (sub)organismal levels in model species (i.e., what we typically measure) translate into impacts on ecosystem service delivery (i.e., what we care about). We consider a hypothetical case study of two species of trout, brown trout (Salmo trutta; BT) and greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias; GCT). These hypothetical populations live in a high-altitude river system and are exposed to human-derived estrogen (17α‑ethinyl estradiol, EE2), which is the bioactive estrogen in many contraceptives. We use the individual based model in STREAM to explore how seasonally varying concentrations of EE2 could influence male spawning and sperm quality. Resulting impacts on trout recruitment and the consequences of such for anglers and for the continued viability of populations of GCT (the state fish of Colorado) are explored. in STREAM incorporates seasonally varying river flow and temperature, fishing pressure, the influence of EE2 on species-specific demography, and inter-specific competition. The model facilitates quantitative exploration of the relative importance of endocrine disruption and inter-species competition on trout population dynamics. Simulations predicted constant EE2 loading to have more impacts on GCT than BT. However, increasing removal of BT by anglers can enhance the persistence of GCT and offset some of the negative effects of EE2. We demonstrate how models that quantitatively link impacts of chemicals and other stressors on individual survival, growth, and reproduction to consequences for populations and ecosystem service delivery, can be coupled with ecosystem service valuation. The approach facilitates interpretation of toxicity data in an ecological context and gives beneficiaries of ecosystem services amore explicit role in management decisions. Although challenges remain, this type of approach may be particularly helpful for site-specific risk assessments and those in which trade offs and synergies among ecosystem services need to be considered

An eclipsing substellar binary in a young triple system discovered by SPECULOOS

Mass, radius, and age are three of the most fundamental parameters for celestial objects, enabling studies of the evolution and internal physics of stars, brown dwarfs, and planets. Brown dwarfs are hydrogen-rich objects that are unable to sustain core fusion reactions but are supported from collapse by electron degeneracy pressure. As they age, brown dwarfs cool, reducing their radius and luminosity. Young exoplanets follow a similar behaviour. Brown dwarf evolutionary models are relied upon to infer the masses, radii and ages of these objects. Similar models are used to infer the mass and radius of directly imaged exoplanets. Unfortunately, only sparse empirical mass, radius and age measurements are currently available, and the models remain mostly unvalidated. Double-line eclipsing binaries provide the most direct route for the absolute determination of the masses and radii of stars. Here, we report the SPECULOOS discovery of 2M1510A, a nearby, eclipsing, double-line brown dwarf binary, with a widely-separated tertiary brown dwarf companion. We also find that the system is a member of the $45\pm5$ Myr-old moving group, Argus. The system's age matches those of currently known directly-imaged exoplanets. 2M1510A provides an opportunity to benchmark evolutionary models of brown dwarfs and young planets. We find that widely-used evolutionary models do reproduce the mass, radius and age of the binary components remarkably well, but overestimate the luminosity by up to 0.65 magnitudes, which could result in underestimated photometric masses for directly-imaged exoplanets and young field brown dwarfs by 20 to 35%

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

A mixed methods inquiry into the validity of data

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens